McCain gets only 31% of the Republican vote losing to Huckabee by 1 point. Mitt and Fred each get 15% and 17% respectively.
As far as the conservative vote, he only gets 26%!! He loses to Huckabee by 9 points. Mitt and Fred get 16% and 19% respectively.
With results like this, one can not say that McCain is winning the party. He is still dependent upon independents. In fact, he is dependent on moderates as well.
He will lose Republicans in Florida and he should split independents and moderates with Giuliani. I think he faces a very uphill battle.
There are two other lines of analysis on what I believe make long odds for him.
One, he is running low on funds. At this stage, the institutional money givers have already given what they will to his primary funds. Any institutional group that hasn't given to him yet, will be either waiting to see Florida results, or they are ideologically opposed to funding his campaign. He can go in search of individual donors via email, direct mail, internet or event fund raisers. Right now event fund raisers are pretty much off the table (the reasons for this are many but trust me on this one). Direct mail is expensive and low yield in such a short time frame. That leaves email solicitations and online donations. Many would would respond to such an outreach have already given and tend to be very ideologically oriented. McCain has a very narrow ideological group to himself and I don't see there being a great swell of new support. He will bring in some money but not as fast nor in the amounts that he needs. So he has a money problem. Pushing his message in Florida will require MSM cooperation and positive polling. He won't be able to buy the air time otherwise.
Two, he is still left of the party and flat out despised by many of the base for issues such as illegal immigration, Gang of 14, etc. Florida loves Jeb Bush and Jeb Bush appears to be in Romney's camp (here and here). With the decline of Fred Thompson, Romney is the last conservative standing. There is a substantial base of voters that will not vote for McCain if given a choice. That vote will split between Giuliani and Romney. I don't believe Huckabee is a factor any further.
My early, early prediction is that either Giuliani and Romney will win and that McCain will finish a close third. The fun will continue past Florida.
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except that Romney is not a conservative...and romney can't win. Romney sucks when it comes to te economy and is an amatuer when it comes to foreign policy.
Mr. Marston is a complete McCainiac, which is his right. However, blunt missives such as "Romney sucks" indicate an intellectual vapidity that is disappointing. I welcome Mr. Marston to give thoughtful analysis. Make a good case. Point to specifics. But please abstain from the ad hominem attacks.
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