The Battle over McCain; Romney Gains

Fred Barnes makes a reasonable plea for the folks who would have conservatives and the voting republicans at large rally behind McCain in today's Wall Street Journal:

Mr. McCain will have to take the initiative to repair the relationship, and he appears ready to do just that.

His victory speech in South Carolina marked a new step. Rather than dwell on the hardy perennials of his campaign message, national security and patriotism, Mr. McCain spoke more broadly about his conservative goals. "We want government to do its job, not your job," he said, "and to do it with less of your money." He praised "free markets, low taxes and small government."

Moreover, Mr. McCain intends to go beyond conservative boilerplate and actually campaign as a conservative. His congressional voting record is predominantly conservative (ACU rating 82.3%), qualifying him to do so. He's already stepped outside his comfort zone on taxes, endorsing a cut in the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%.

Dan Riehl counters brilliantly:

At least two characteristics make McCain unacceptable, no matter how much he tries to spin himself into a conservative now. He first opposed issues around the war and Bush's tax cuts because of lingering animosity towards George Bush, resulting from the 2000 campaign. He's proved himself a man unable to stand on principle, especially conservative ones, when his emotions are involved. That makes him politically untrustworthy, at best.

The second big problem is the media image as a maverick McCain cultivated for selfish reasons, because the press, and particularly the electronic media, loved slobbering over an alleged Republican consistently happy to attack the base and even his own Republican President. First and foremost, John McCain is about John McCain - and it shows.

I won't even give David Brooks the courtesy of a link, but he illustrates MSM arguments for McCain in his piece today in the Gray Lady. Rush spent quite a bit of time refuting his arguments for the ill-considered and inconsistent blather that they are. No need to retread the points there.

But now the battle has narrowed with the departure of Fred Thompson. Paul Mirengoff posited that the Fred votes would allocate evenly between "McCain, Giuliani, and (in southern states) Huckabee". I disagree.

I posted my "Vacuum Theory" in a incoherent and rambling fashion but the foundational point remains: The dynamics of a multi-candidate field will reward a single candidate disproportionately when the field is narrowed. The real question is which candidate will benefit the most.

I believe Romney will gain disproportionately because 1) His conservative credentials have the broadest support and accolade of the remaining candidates 2) His conservative credentials have the least amount of target for attack--ie. he contrasts well with all the other candidates on conservative issues 3) Economy is suddenly front and center 4) His organization is the best of all the candidates 4) He can afford to spend the money to "win" the Thompson voters and other as yet uncommitted or undecided or even the fickle.

UPDATE:

Over at Ace of Spades HQ, a online poll of Fredheads gives the following result. Ace sums up:

Early Results... It's a small sample and not scientific but I think it's somewhat representative as it seems to track with the new preferences expressed in the comments.

So far, it looks like Fred's 10% of supporters won't have a major impact on the race. About half will go to Romney, giving him a nice but hardly decisive bump, and a quarter to Giuliani, giving him almost nothing (except perhaps if that tiny bump is enough to put him just barely past McCain in, say, New York).

So Romney gains about half of Fred Thompson voters? That seems about right and the Vacuum Theory now has some evidentiary support!

UPDATE 2:
Patrick Ruffini has a similar poll with more dramatic results. Hmmm, 74% to Romney??!! Now that is disproportionate.

UPDATE 3:
Allah Pundit has a 3-way poll with results more like Ruffini's. My guess is that 60-65% of Thompson supporters move to Mitt. Will this change the dynamic in Florida? I unabashedly say YES!