Future contracts for Mike Huckabee to win in Iowa at Intrade.com are tanking in Iowa. His futures as the Republican nominee are rapidly declining also. Those who put real money on the line do not see him as a good bet.
Meanwhile Romney contracts are surging in Iowa and in the GOP Nomination futures. If you want to turn $25 into $100 (300% return) by election day, buy some Romney contracts. (My wife deems this gambling so I leave it to the reader!)
Also note the Iowa Electronic Markets which has Romney ahead of the GOP field and leading Giuliani 29.9 to 26.2.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Friday, December 28, 2007
I'll Be Bold.. Romney wins Iowa by 8 Points
I'll be bold: Romney by 8 pts in Iowa.
Heres why.
1) The polls are overstating Huckabees support by 11-12 points. And they are missing the declining support as the Huckster shows himself to be Daffy Duckabee; all bluster and continually shooting off his own beak.
2) No one is giving the proper amount of credit to the Mormon voting block. This alone could be 4-5 points that is escaping the pollsters and pundits radar.
3) No one (in the republican field) is even close to Romney is his Iowa ground operation and organization. His GOTV efforts will be incredible, possibly worth a full 5 pts alone.
4) The republican caucus format will reward his ground troops greatly. He will have well versed and articulate representatives at every caucus location to close the deal on the leaners and to sway the undecided. He bests his rivals by 15% in this regard. (I see Fred doing the next best and then McCain)
5) The ads he is running will give the results that good political ads always do: they will convince many undecideds. Romney has very good and very smart advertising people.
6) The punditry class (Major Journalists, Political Commentators, Widely-Read Bloggers, Talk Show hosts) will have a cumulative effect. My rough estimate is that among this group Romney is 65-70% positive while Huckabee is 70-75% negative. (Fred is 60%+ positive, McCain 55-60% positive and Guillianni is 50%+ positive) The bottom line effect will be the division of the Undecideds.
Heres why.
1) The polls are overstating Huckabees support by 11-12 points. And they are missing the declining support as the Huckster shows himself to be Daffy Duckabee; all bluster and continually shooting off his own beak.
2) No one is giving the proper amount of credit to the Mormon voting block. This alone could be 4-5 points that is escaping the pollsters and pundits radar.
3) No one (in the republican field) is even close to Romney is his Iowa ground operation and organization. His GOTV efforts will be incredible, possibly worth a full 5 pts alone.
4) The republican caucus format will reward his ground troops greatly. He will have well versed and articulate representatives at every caucus location to close the deal on the leaners and to sway the undecided. He bests his rivals by 15% in this regard. (I see Fred doing the next best and then McCain)
5) The ads he is running will give the results that good political ads always do: they will convince many undecideds. Romney has very good and very smart advertising people.
6) The punditry class (Major Journalists, Political Commentators, Widely-Read Bloggers, Talk Show hosts) will have a cumulative effect. My rough estimate is that among this group Romney is 65-70% positive while Huckabee is 70-75% negative. (Fred is 60%+ positive, McCain 55-60% positive and Guillianni is 50%+ positive) The bottom line effect will be the division of the Undecideds.
Why McCain gets a Horse Puckey Alert
I have met John McCain many times and have known and worked with many of his campaign staffers and volunteers. He is an example of everything I learned to hate about the political campaign.
I learned quickly that there were two types of campaign people. The first was a dedicated and principled person who chose to work for or volunteer for the candidate that they truly believed was the best man or woman for the job. The second were the sycophants who were ambitious, unprincipled and generally scumbags and they volunteered for purely selfish reasons or took employment for the candidate based on calculations of personal gain.
McCain was constantly surrounded by sycophants. Every candidate and politician I met had at the least a few of the second group. Often these are the consultant types, either professionally employed as such or hoping to become such. Pollsters fit in this category generally. But McCain had few of the first group and an obvious overabundance of the second group.
Several of the volunteers for John Kyl that I met had been former volunteers for McCain. This was somewhat logical as it was McCains former district that Kyl represented before winning his Senate seat in 1994. But to a person they all said that they would never help John McCain again. He treated his volunteers and many employed staffers with disdain, ridicule, and fiery bursts of temper when any thing went wrong.
I do not miss being in the back office of a campaign. I do not miss the endless rounds of fund raising events. And I especially do not miss the sycophants and the politicians who fuel them. John McCain is not warm. He is not kind. And for these reasons alone I cannot support him.
Finally, he is not what I consider truly conservative as has been widely discussed at length at many places on the Right of Center blogosphere (See Captains Quarters, Hugh Hewitt, Powerline, and Mark Levin.)
[Begrudging Note: I will vote for McCain if he is the Republican Nominee. He is not the lesser of two evils in such a scenario; just a bad republican politician.]
I learned quickly that there were two types of campaign people. The first was a dedicated and principled person who chose to work for or volunteer for the candidate that they truly believed was the best man or woman for the job. The second were the sycophants who were ambitious, unprincipled and generally scumbags and they volunteered for purely selfish reasons or took employment for the candidate based on calculations of personal gain.
McCain was constantly surrounded by sycophants. Every candidate and politician I met had at the least a few of the second group. Often these are the consultant types, either professionally employed as such or hoping to become such. Pollsters fit in this category generally. But McCain had few of the first group and an obvious overabundance of the second group.
Several of the volunteers for John Kyl that I met had been former volunteers for McCain. This was somewhat logical as it was McCains former district that Kyl represented before winning his Senate seat in 1994. But to a person they all said that they would never help John McCain again. He treated his volunteers and many employed staffers with disdain, ridicule, and fiery bursts of temper when any thing went wrong.
I do not miss being in the back office of a campaign. I do not miss the endless rounds of fund raising events. And I especially do not miss the sycophants and the politicians who fuel them. John McCain is not warm. He is not kind. And for these reasons alone I cannot support him.
Finally, he is not what I consider truly conservative as has been widely discussed at length at many places on the Right of Center blogosphere (See Captains Quarters, Hugh Hewitt, Powerline, and Mark Levin.)
[Begrudging Note: I will vote for McCain if he is the Republican Nominee. He is not the lesser of two evils in such a scenario; just a bad republican politician.]
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