I'll Be Bold.. Romney wins Iowa by 8 Points

I'll be bold: Romney by 8 pts in Iowa.

Heres why.

1) The polls are overstating Huckabees support by 11-12 points. And they are missing the declining support as the Huckster shows himself to be Daffy Duckabee; all bluster and continually shooting off his own beak.

2) No one is giving the proper amount of credit to the Mormon voting block. This alone could be 4-5 points that is escaping the pollsters and pundits radar.

3) No one (in the republican field) is even close to Romney is his Iowa ground operation and organization. His GOTV efforts will be incredible, possibly worth a full 5 pts alone.

4) The republican caucus format will reward his ground troops greatly. He will have well versed and articulate representatives at every caucus location to close the deal on the leaners and to sway the undecided. He bests his rivals by 15% in this regard. (I see Fred doing the next best and then McCain)

5) The ads he is running will give the results that good political ads always do: they will convince many undecideds. Romney has very good and very smart advertising people.

6) The punditry class (Major Journalists, Political Commentators, Widely-Read Bloggers, Talk Show hosts) will have a cumulative effect. My rough estimate is that among this group Romney is 65-70% positive while Huckabee is 70-75% negative. (Fred is 60%+ positive, McCain 55-60% positive and Guillianni is 50%+ positive) The bottom line effect will be the division of the Undecideds.